Xingjian (Ken) Yan

Xingjian (Ken) Yan

PhD Student, MIT Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences

Atmospheric Blocking Prediction from the Traffic Jam Theory

Under the guidance of Lei Wang and Ed Gerber, we examined the utility of Local Wave Activity (LWA) as a predictor of atmospheric blockings. We defined and experimented with “LWA flux exceedance events”, which are occurrences when the weather system carries more storm activity than the allowance of a pre-determined LWA flux capacity, coming from the "traffic jam theory" proposed by Nakamura and Huang.

The work is submitted to Geophysical Research Letters; including three key points here:

1. Flow capacity exceedance events, predictors of blocking onset in the traffic jam theory, are defined and evaluated in reanalysis products.
2. A downstream reduction in flow capacity is ubiquitous for both exceedance and blocking events: lane closures favor traffic jams.
3. Blocks are co-located with exceedance events in space but not in time, limiting the utility of the traffic jam theory for prediction.

PhD students Valentina and Ka Ying in Lei's group also contributed to the study as well.

See also this beautifully-written post by Ed.