Fair-Value Engine: Probabilistic Pricing for Event Contracts

This is an ongoing quantitative-research project on pricing short-horizon event contracts. Rather than a single point estimate, the engine maintains a full probability distribution over the contract’s settlement value and updates it continuously as new information arrives — so every listed outcome bracket gets a model fair value, before and after each update. The interesting part is watching the two distributions disagree early in the horizon and converge as the outcome locks in.

A live, interactive demo lets you replay archived examples hour by hour and price today’s contracts in real time, end to end in the browser.