Different Weather Forecasting Techniques
Coconut, NWP, AI, S2S Hindcasts, Data Assimilation
Posts by Collection
portfolio
Orthogonal Four-Basis Decomposition for PV Tendency Analysis
A mathematically clean way to separate PV intensification, propagation, and wave-breaking deformation. 
Atmospheric Blocking Prediction from the Traffic Jam Theory
Defining an ‘exceedance’ event as a harbinger of atmospheric blockings. 
What Determines Wave Breaking Orientations during Blocking Events
Roles of meridional wind shear 𝝏𝒖/𝝏𝒚 and diabatic heating on blockings and associated RWB orientations
Ensemble-Consistent Gaussian Process Reconstruction
A geometry-aware Gaussian process framework constrained by ensemble covariance structure. 
Downscaling of XTC
Downscaling extreme precipitation across Puerto Rico in current and future climates.
Mid-Frequency Trading
Exploring quantitative trading strategies using mid-frequency market data analysis.
Multi-Solitary (Tsunami) Wave
Numerical analyses on multi-solitary wave run-ups.
Computer Vision on High-Voltage Energized Equipment
Using SAM and yolov8 to identify high-voltage energized equipment and automatically detect defections with machine-generated solutions.
Computer Vision on Vehicular Flux-Density Relationship Regression
Using yolov8 to calculate vehicle density and speed to optimize highway carriage.
A Published Essay on the Commercial Press of China
Once upon a time, I almost became a historian.
publications
Numerical Analysis on Run-Up of Multi-Solitary Waves on A Planar Slope
Published in ISOPE International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference, 2024
Numerical simulations of multi-solitary wave run-ups over a planar slope. Scheme: FUNWAVE-TVD. Results compared with lab results.
Recommended citation: Yan, Xingjian, Xu, Yiyang, and Liu, Hua. "Numerical Analysis on Run-up of Multi-Solitary Waves on a Planar Slope." Paper presented at the The 34th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference, Rhodes, Greece, June 2024.
Download Paper | Download Slides
Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking with a Diminishing Flow Capacity
Published in Geophysical Research Letters, 2024
Using NH18 to define LWA flux exceedance events, this paper explores predictors of blocking onset in the traffic jam theory. A downstream reduction in flow capacity is common for both exceedance and blocking events, similar to how lane closures favor traffic jams. Blocks are co-located with exceedance events in space but not in time, limiting the predictive utility of the traffic jam theory.
Recommended citation: Yan, X., Wang, L., Gerber, E. P., Castañeda, V., & Ho, K. Y. (2024). Traffic bottlenecks: Predicting atmospheric blocking with a diminishing flow capacity. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL111035. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111035
Download Paper | Download Slides
Ensemble–Conditional Gaussian Processes: Classical Foundations and a Discrete Vector-Space Equivalence
Published in Arxiv, 2026
Mathematical proof on the equivalence among inference using Conditional Gaussian Process, Maximum a posteriori estimation, Roproducing Kernel Hilbert Space, and Kalman FIltering (under the linear Gaussian setting).
Recommended citation: Ravela, S., Kim, J. D., Gee, K., Yan, X., Mercier, S., Albarghouty, L., & Saha, A. (2026). Ensemble-Conditional Gaussian Processes (Ens-CGP): Representation, Geometry, and Inference. arXiv preprint arXiv:2602.13871.
Download Paper | Download Slides
software
PV Tendency Decomposition
Orthogonal four-basis decomposition tools for PV tendency analysis.
talks
A Data-Driven Examination on the Traffic Model Analogy for Blocking Statistics
Published:
You can find the eLightning poster here.
Predicting Atmospheric Blocking with the Traffic Jam Mechanism: The Role of Merging
Published:
You can find the poster here.
Numerical Analysis on Run-Up of Multi-Solitary Waves on A Planar Slope
Published:
You can find the slides here.
Summer and Winter Extratropical Storm Track Changes in both ERA5 Reanalysis (Past Changes) and CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 Experiment (Future Projection) - a Simple Eulerian Approach
Published:
A final project for MIT Course 12.842. You can find the poster here. You can also find the paper write up here.
Do AI Weather Forecast Models Respect Atmosphere Dynamics?
Published:
A final project for MIT Course 12.810. You can find the slides here. You can also find the paper write up here.
Mechanisms Controlling Wave Breaking Orientations during Blocking Events
Published:
I delivered a 15-minute slide talk at the stormtracks workshop in Rosendal, Norway on Wednesday. The workshop is hosted by UiB - Univ. of Bergen. You can find my slides here.
Can Machine Learning Produce Climate Invariant Downscaling?
Published:
I delivered a 15-minute slide talk at the 2025 AGU in New Orleans, LA. You can find my slides here.
A Potential Vorticity Approach to the Growth, Maintenance, and Decay of Blocking Events
Published:
I delivered a 12-minute slide talk at the 2026 AMS AOFD in Houston, TX. You can find my slides here.
teaching
NYU Math Course Notes
Math course notes, NYU Courant, 2021
These are my handwritten notes in OneNote format. Note that there may be Mandarin or French symbols. Click on the course name to open the notebook.
Journal Paper Notes
Journal Paper notes, MIT EAPS, 2024
This page has stopped updating
MIT EAPS Course Notes
EAPS course notes, MIT EAPS, 2024
These are my handwritten notes in OneNote format. Note that there may be Mandarin symbols. Click on the course name to open the notebook. Some of them had accessibility issues due to OneNote school account reasons; feel free to email me for a copy of such notes.
Machine Learning on Dynamical Systems
EAPS course notes, MIT EAPS, 2025
I’ve started taking an off-cycle course 12.S592 on machine learning taught by Sai Ravela, with a focus on (non-Gaussian) dynamical systems. My desired final project is on extratropical cyclone downscaling, using a reduced stochastic model. Here are some PSet notes and schematic solutions, because they are very interesting problems to think about.
Intro to NCL (on HPC and PC)
misc., misc., 2025
This is a quick intro on how to use NCL to process raw grib files downloaded from ECMWF using MARS api requests.
Using Tempest Extreme to track (Anti)Cyclones anywhere on any level surfaces!
2025 Princeton GFDL Hackathon, Princeton GFDL, 2025
Some takeways from the 2025 Princeton GFDL Hackathon, esp. on tempest extreme, a tracking algo.
Intro to Globus CLI (on HPC)
misc., misc., 2025
This is a quick intro on how to use Globus Command Line Interface line to transfer from NCAR to MIT oceans
Various of Decompositions on a fluid field
misc., misc., 2025
Time-mean decomposition, high-low frequency decomposition, Helmholtz decomposition,… everything you’ll need to analyze a fluid field!
MPAS-A Notes
Notes for Running MODEL FOR PREDICTION ACROSS SCALES - ATMOSPHERE, MIT EAPS, 2025
Notes for building everything MPAS from this tutorial.
HPC Quick Notes
misc., misc., 2025
Some useful HPC commands
Run Your Own AI Weather Model
misc., misc., 2025
This is a quick intro on how to use run the (Nvidia) fourcastnetv2 and (Huawei) pangu AI model from ecmwf-plugin instructions.
CorrDiff Notes
Notes for Running CorrDiff on Dolma, MIT EAPS, 2025
Notes for building everything CorrDiff from this tutorial.
Qualify Exam Notes
Exam Notes, MIT EAPS, 2025
As the name suggests, 4 Latex files for GFD, Radiation & Convection, Atmospheric Blocking, and Machine learning for dynamical systems (Ensemble Conditional Gaussian Process + Deep Learning)